Stat on a Hot Tin Roof (statistical theater of the absurd reblog)

Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20, 2012)

Dear Reader: Not having been at this very long, I don’t know if it’s common for bloggers to collect a pile of rejected posts that one thinks better of before posting. Well, I began to generate such posts, and eventually created a blog within a blog (first on private). Some initially rejected posts were even rejected for the “rejected posts” blog, but most are here. It seems fitting to reblog my very first “rejected post” as my very first rejected post, particularly since we have recently discussed George Barnard.  Sincerely, D. G. Mayo

Originally posted on February 20, 2012 by Mayo Edit

Did you ever consider how some of the colorful exchanges among better-known names in statistical foundations could be the basis for high literary drama in the form of one-act plays (even if appreciated by only 3-7 people in the world)? (Think of the expressionist exchange between Bohr and Heisenberg in Michael Frayn’s play Copenhagen, except here there would be no attempt at all to popularize—only published quotes and closely remembered conversations would be included, with no attempt to create a “story line”.)  Somehow I didn’t think so. But rereading some of Savage’s high-flown praise of Birnbaum’s “breakthrough” argument (for the Likelihood Principle) today, I was swept into a “(statistical) theater of the absurd” mindset. Continue reading

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Msc kvetch: X-rays

Why are we still being subjected to full-body X-ray scanners in the U.S. whenEurope has (just) banned them? And why do I seem to be the only “female opt out” (at least in my line of people at several airports)? (This should be parked on my kvetch page.)

Full body X-ray scans may save travelers the trouble of being frisked, but the European Union has decided to ban the machines due to safety concerns.

The controversial machines show a complete image of a person’s body, but their purpose is to reveal hidden explosives and weapons at security checkpoints. Experts’ biggest fear is that these machines may emit high levels of cancer-causing radiation.

The European Commission blocked new trials for the device due to safety concerns, but Manchester Airport was allowed to continue to use the $130,000 machines for another year as part of a trial.

Machester Airport workers were hoping that the EC would approve permanent user of the machines, especially after they declared that the machines pose close to a zero risk in May.

However the European airport never got the go-ahead. The European Commission’s chiefs didn’t give approval for the machines to be used permanently after a three year trial.

Now the airport will have to replace the full body X-ray scanners with “privacy -friendly” scanners which will cost the airport over $2 million and 55 extra security workers.

…..

While the machines have been scrapped from Europe, the United States continues to use them. The devices, which were added in 2010, are used in at least 68 airports across the country.

The Transportation Security Administration started to add these scanners after a man tried to blow up a Detroit-bound plane in 2009 with a bomb that he had in his underwear. TSA tests show that the machines don’t emit harmful levels of radiation, yet some passengers still opt for full-body pat downs instead of passing through the machines due to a fear of their potential effects.

Research suggests that despite how low the radiation is, hundreds of passengers may get cancer just because there are so many scanners in the U.S. Last year, there were 250 machines in U.S. airports and research suggested that 100 people could get cancer because of them. Airports have added 600 new machines this year.

Read more here.

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Giant Cups Break Law in NYC (9/13/12)

Just what we need:

New York City’s Board of Health opened up a new, experimental front in the war on obesity Thursday, passing a rule banning sales of big sodas and other sugary drinks at restaurants, concession stands and other eateries….

…. They say the proposal strikes at a leading cause of obesity simply by giving people a built-in reason to stop at 16 ounces: 200 calories, if it’s a regular Coke, compared to 240 in a 20-ounce size. Continue reading

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Nausea backlash/Ozy

The only good thing to be said about this is the degree of disgust evident in Andria Mitchell’s voice and look.  Too bad she evidently feels she has to take orders from Chris (“any B.O. criticism is a code word”) Matthews.

Isn’t it time to send Matthews to join Olbermann?

Don’t they worry that the Obama sand sculpture will remind people of…

 Ozymandias 

    by Shelley (1792-1822)

I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand, Continue reading

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“Science: It’s a Sexy Thing” (7-18-12)

from Science: Its a Girl Thing

“Science: It’s a Sexy Thing”

(I had this kvetch on “draft” since 6/27/12, but then we lost electricity and I didn’t bother posting it.  It strikes me as even more outrageous than when I first saw it!)

This comically absurd music video, “Science: It’s a Girl Thing” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/22/science-its-a-girl-thing-_n_1620235.html?utm_hp_ref=science is understandably evoking outrage and/or guffaws. Scantily clad girls and women are Continue reading

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Particle Physics is Bad Science?

I suppose this is somewhat of a joke from the ISBA, prompted by Dennis Lindley–right?– but as I accord the actual degree of jokiness to be only ~33%, I’m raising it on my Msc Kvetching page.  Lindley (according to O’Hagan) wonders why scientists require so high a level of statistical significance before claiming to have evidence of a Higgs boson.  It is asked: “Are the particle physics community completely wedded to frequentist analysis?  If so, has anyone tried to explain what bad  science that is?”
Bad science?   I’d really like to understand what these representatives from the ISBA would recommend, if there is even a shred of seriousness here (or is Lindley just peeved that significance levels are getting so much press in connection with so important a discovery in particle physics?)
Well, read the letter and see what you think. Continue reading

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7-3-12 The ‘Derecho’ and the SCOTUS decision?

 Is there a connection between the ‘Derecho’ and the SCOTUS decision?

This, from “The People’s Cube

Comrades, it has been a scary weekend, without electricity, and hunkered down in our basement here in the suburbs of DC, first as a mighty storm made our 3 floors compound rattle as if there was an earthquake with a shock-&-awe light-sound show that made Tom Cruise’s “War Of The Worlds” movie epic merely a kiddy show, and then as the threat of looting has turned me, a card carrying member of the Communist Party, into a de facto virtual member of the NRA (my mothballed Makarov is still in perfect working order…). After all, I am more equal than others, and I can’t share my stuff with DC looters. Continue reading

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Women: Be Neither Go-fer Nor Golfer 5/18/12

I was asked what I thought of the ninth recommendation among Julie Steinberg’s “nine rules women must follow to get ahead”: Dress well and play golf.

“You need to learn how to play golf. You don’t have to be good, but you have to be competent enough to be invited for quality bonding time.”

The idea of recommending a woman take on a sport or hobby that is popular with male colleagues but which she wouldn’t have pursued otherwise is, in my opinion, absurd and bound to be self-defeating. Continue reading

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PhilStock: just handwringing: 5-16-12

PhilStock: I have been asked why I haven’t posted a PhilStock in so long.  It is not that I don’t have a lot to say as regards recent stock events/performance (basically terrible), I just don’t think any of it is especially philosophical. I might note that the “mascot” stock for this site, Diamond Offshore (DO) (chosen because of the “deep-drilling” metaphor, and the fact that I own it) is ~60, oversold,  as low as its been since January.  Anyone recommending Facebook’s IPO? I never use it.

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When it is an error to think admitting error matters: 5-7-12

Gelman has a blogpost today where he wrings his hands over those who make mistakes and won’t admit it (the example he gives is rather distant but amusing in its own right):

http://andrewgelman.com/2012/05/the-hare-the-pineapple-and-ed-wegman/#comments

Well as it happens I was discussing just today (in relation to philosophy of statistics) how common it is for people in this arena to admit error and still  just go on and repeat the identical example and argument (in print!) without even mentioning the criticisms that earlier, allegedly, led them to disown their own example/argument.  I mentioned a case in relation to my April 28 post, and several others throughout this blog. It’s perhaps a brilliant strategy: Continue reading

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