Monthly Archives: October 2014

More ironies from the replicationistas: Bet on whether you/they will replicate a statistically significant result

For a group of researchers concerned wit how the reward structure can bias results of significance tests, this has to be a joke or massively ironic:

Second Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science

The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate!

There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which you will get to bet on.

In each market that you participate, you will bet on a binary outcome: whether the effect in the replication study is in the same direction as the original study, and is statistically significant with a p-value smaller than 0.05.

Everybody is eligible to participate in the prediction markets: it is open to all members of the Open Science Collaboration discussion group – you do not need to be part of a replication for the Reproducibility Project. However, you cannot bet on your own replications.

Each study/market will have a prospectus with all available information so that you can make informed decisions.

The prediction markets are subsidized. All participants will get about $50 on their prediction account to trade with. How much money you make depends on how you bet on different hypotheses (on average participants will earn about $50 on a Mastercard (or the equivalent) gift card that can be used anywhere Mastercard is used).

The prediction markets will open on October 21, 2014 and close on November 4.

If you are willing to participate in the prediction markets, please send an email to Siri Isaksson by October 19 and we will set up an account for you. Before we open up the prediction markets, we will send you a short survey.

The prediction markets are run in collaboration with Consensus Point.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email Siri Isaksson.

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