Monthly Archives: November 2013

Saturday night comedy from a Bayesian diary (rejected post*)

Breaking through 'the breakthrough'

Breaking through ‘the breakthrough’

A reader sends me this excerpt from Thomas Leonard’s “Bayesian Boy” book or diary or whatever it is:

“While Professor Mayo’s ongoing campaign against LP would appear to be wild and footloose, she has certainly shaken up the Bayesian Establishment.”
Maybe the “footloose” part refers to the above image (first posted here.) I actually didn’t think the Bayesian Establishment had taken notice. (My paper on the strong likelihood principle (SLP) is here).
*This falls under “rejected posts” since it has no direct PhilStat content. But the links do.
Categories: danger, rejected posts, strong likelihood principle | 10 Comments

PhilStock: No-pain bull

imagesPhilStock. I haven’t had time for stock research in the past 6 months, but fortunately, no changes to portfolios have been required. With Yellen’s assurances last week that the monthly methadone injections of $85 billion[i] of  will continue, it’s bull, bull, bull, with new highs weekly. Even my airlines—generally the worst area to trade in—are, yes flying high (e.g., American from $1.90 to over $11., Delta, Jet Blue, all soaring). But look how low our Diamond Offshore mascot (DO) is [ii]. It is said that small investors typically jump into the market only after the bull has been running:

“The likely outcome is they’ll ride that last-gasp bull market for a short while and experience an enormous loss in personal wealth when the bubble collapses.”(link)

I’m guessing the next 4 months might be safe (T, VZ, WIN?): Remember, though, the one rule on PhilStock: Never ever listen to (i.e., act on) anything I say about the stock market.

[i]in monthly bond market purchases.

[ii] There’s an explanation (of course). It hardly matters with over 5% in special dividends. For why DO is the “mascot” of my regular blog, search rejected posts.

Some related posts:
Bad News is Good News on Wallstreet

Topsy-turvy game

The great taper caper

Categories: phil stock, rejected posts, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

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