PhilStock Blog: “Year of the Yo Yo” (Jan 19, 2012)

A couple of months ago I was about to start an “other blog” (as Google calls it), this one on philosophical reflections on the stock market (PhilStock), but as I cannot even keep up one blog, I wisely discarded that idea after a single post (on high speed trading).  So if I dip into that area on this blog, I will warn readers with the “Phil Stock Blog” tag[i].  First and last rule on PhilStock: Never listen to anything I say about the stock market.

 It’s a bizarre kind of comfort to see that stock analysts are much less inclined to tout their skills ever since the crash (of 08-09), admitting that, at least with today’s crazy market, performance is more “the result of luck rather than skill”.  Take the Financial Page of the latest New Yorker (“Year of the Yo-Yo”, Jan. 16, 2010): Continue reading
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Censorship of science?

Does this really count as censorship of science? Is it warranted? Likely to be effective in avoiding “Contagion”?

The government advisory board that oversees biosecurity in the U.S. is asking the scientific journals Nature and Science to censor details of recent studies on bird flu due to concerns about biological terrorism. Researchers created mutations of the H5N1 virus, making it transferable between mammals through the air. In 60 percent of human cases, this strain of avian flu is fatal. At present, only 350 people worldwide have died because of the flu, only because it can be contracted via direct contact with infected birds.

                D. A. Henderson, Christine Gorman

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Do chronic cell phone users have an exaggerated sense of self-importance?

What is it that’s so annoying about a person talking at length on their cell phone in public?  (I was reminded of this while waiting in airport lines as of late.)  The same person could be talking to an embodied person and I wouldn’t notice; it certainly wouldn’t irk me this way. But put me in line with this person on their cell phone—or put us on the bus or in an elevator together—and I can’t help but feeling just the tiniest bit outraged.  But by what? Their bloated sense of self-importance?  Why do I find it so obnoxious?  I’m guessing I’m not alone*, yet it seems somewhat irrational (assuming the issue isn’t the loudness).  It’s worst I think when the user is just shooting the breeze, or sounding as if they’re closing a deal, or describing (in “real-time”) being in line. Continue reading

Categories: Misc Kvetching | Tags: | 4 Comments

Tapping through philosophical minefields

Well I finally did it!  After weeks of passing by tap classes at Pineapple Dance Studio in London (a main reason I arranged an apt in Covent Garden to begin with) I successfully made it through a Derek Hartley tap class (“elementary”).   First time since the bizarre knee injury of October September (doctors never did say just when I could go back).  It’s quite amazing to walk in off the street, and see he is doing exactly what I have seen him do for years—teaching super-cool jazz-tap routines, telling the same tap jokes, and dancing just as great as ever!  Mind-altering to find myself tapping to a smooth and jazzy “Lullaby of Birdland” again,(a favorite).  Limping just a little, but exhilarated.  Now it’s back to tapping my way through philosophical minefields, or perhaps, pirouetting (as Christian Robert put it).

I don’t know why some of the pictures on this blog do not appear on some devices—need the Elba crew to get to the bottom of this.  I’ll be traveling back there soon enough….

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I TRIED TO BE A FEMALE OPT-OUT

In the Clutches of the TSA

I don’t know if this is true, but I was told yesterday by some TSA inspectors that there would no longer be an “opt-out” option from full-body scanners in Europe.  (Anyone know about this?)  About to pass through security at Heathrow (British Air) I began the usual strip, including knee brace, which invariably triggers bells.  I was told they didn’t want me removing the knee brace “in public”, so I went through the machine, it went off, and I was given a pat down and told I also had to go through the full-body scanner which I always opt out of (not that it has often arisen). They usually grab a bullhorn and yell out loudly “female opt out!” in order to signal the need for a non-male TSA rep to do the pat down.  This time, however, they told me there had just a few days ago been a change of rules in Europe, and there was no opting out (if selected).    After I argued for several minutes that neither the safety nor the effectiveness of the full-body scan had passed severe tests, I suddenly found myself surrounded by 4 male TS officials who said I either go through the full-body scanner or not fly.  I received a form in which to write my complaint to the authorities.  After I submitted to their invasion of privacy, they still demanded I take the brace off—I guess it was ok to perform in public now.  Any females with similar experiences?

If the following is true, I hope she succeeds in suing:(updated Dec. 3, 2011)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57336167/84-year-old-claims-tsa-strip-search/

Categories: Misc Kvetching | Tags: , , | 1 Comment

Thinking of Eating Meat Causes Antisocial Behavior?

One of the faculty members here in The Netherlands (Richard Gill) told me about this social scientist (Diederik Stapel) who long fabricated data purporting to provide evidence for things like: thinking of eating meat causes anti-social behavior.  He was only very recently fired.  My cynical question is: isn’t there enough latitude in any data purporting to provide evidence for such claims to avoid the need for outright fabrication? Continue reading

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OPERA ERROR? or …

Driven in this rather far-out pink Hummer car rental (not my idea, but cute–takes deisel too), I quickly got to the Zurich airport.  Next stop: a workshop on error in the sciences ( Lorentz Center in the Netherlands). Now last week I’d read that there was a fairly blatant error in the statistical analysis (or in the prediction) involved in the experiments on faster-than-the speed-of-light-particles by the OPERA group (Oscillation Project with Emulsion-tRacking Apparatus), but now it appears there is back-tracking on the back-tracking.   What do readers think? Can anyone update me on this?  (Hunches ok too.)

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Playing to the Probability Poem

ISAAC CHATFIELD, COMPOSER, JAZZ GUITARIST (son)
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Probability Poetry

I am reminded it is Friday, having just gotten a Skype call from friends back at Elbar; so here’s another little contest.  Each of the following statisticians provided useful help on drafts of papers I was writing in response to (Bayesian) critics.  One of them, to my surprise, attached the following poem to his remarks:

A toast is due to one who slays
Misguided followers of Bayes,
And in their heart strikes fear and terror,
With probabilities of error!

Without looking this up, guess the author:

1)   I.J. Good
2)   George Barnard
3)   Erich Lehmann
4)   Oscar Kempthorne

The first correct guess will receive an amusing picture from “the whaler” sent from Elbar.

(Note:  The author wanted me to note that this poem was to be taken in a jocular vein. )

Song Corresponding to Poem

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ELBA GREASE

In exile from exile, I sort of miss one of the places my Island friends would insist I accompany them to on Friday nights: a watering hole called the “Elbar Room” which serves up a wonderful sour drink called “Elbar Grease” (I am serious)—it is like drinking straight lemon which for some reason I‘ve always liked (GW says I may be missing a gene). Anyway it’s some kind of sparkling wine with extremely sour lemon liquor and nectarines. The shiny military brass barstools alone make the place interesting. Sadly, I don’t know when I can return just yet. Continue reading

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